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I am not signing.

Rio Casa (Ex-HUDC Hougang)

Screenshot taken from ST

Original data found on-line
Reserve price said to be about S$450m; it will cost another S$200m to top up the lease and intensify the plot ratio (Straits Times 15 Mar 2017)

This works out about $565 psfppr by my calculation based on the original site area (found on-line) 


From Anonymous26 March, 2017
From BT: $61M top up lease
$141M intensify plot ratio to 2.8
Site area: 396231 sqft
works out to: $590 psfppr.

From authoritive sources, Rio Casa original site area reduced to present value when adjacent condo 'Evergreen Park' was developed and needed access road to HDB car park.


With the smaller site area my spreadsheet now looks like:

The smaller land area now pushes the psfppr to $588 based on the figures given. 

The SC must have done a reasonable stab at a RLV to get this price. 

The rule of thumb for most new developments is that the psf of the new development is around twice the psfppr paid for the site. So, the potential new condo will be priced at $1180 psf and above. In 5 years time, that is not an unreasonable assumption to make. 


Next to Nothing

Well, the Minutes of the 17th SC Meeting are on the Notice Board.

They contain absolutely nothing of  interest.  Four short paragraphs; 2 of which  were dedicated to telling us in detail that the Strata Roll is not up-to-date ( it never is). One line would have sufficed.

3rd paragraph: the SC asked Huttons when the next scheduled signing session would be. They replied that they would contact SPs who had not signed and arrange signing sessions for these SPs. To me, that sounds like there would be no more mass signing sessions at the void deck but targeted door-to-door sales tactics.

4th paragraph: could have been just one line: Let's put posters up on the Notice Boards - but said posters to be provided by the CSC, not Huttons who think it's a waste of time.

No update on signing %

Meeting was 1.5 hrs long.  Was this all there was to report? They must have talked really slow.

Nothing

The last minuted Sale Committee meeting was on the 24 Nov 2016. Their communication with SPs is non-existent, no one knows what is going on. Their fig-leaf of a Facebook page tells us nothing - obviously they are too scared to put a toe out in case someone might step on it. They are riding roughshod over owners' interests with their deafening silence. They owe us everything and they give us nothing.

Will they issue a few scant lines about their meeting on the 18th March? 






Tampines Ave 10 Parcel C Land Sale

https://www.ura.gov.sg/uol/land-sales-repository/Sites/tampines-av10-pc-cl.aspx



Braddel View; Last To Go


GLS Follow Up

Here is a summary of the raw data of 7 Government Land sales nearest Tampines Court. I can add a few more to the list when I have time - but looking at the data you can see a semblance of a trend - a Rule of Thumb, as it were. 

It seems the developer aims to sell the units at an average of twice the $ psf ppr. In other words a minimum ratio of 2:1.  Anything higher (say 2.5: 1 and they are in clover. To those who don't know what $psfppr means it is the Purchase Price /(site area*plot ratio). 

GLS sites do not have any Differential Premium or Lease Top up to add to their costs, they are clean sites. Two of the sites (The Alps Residences & The Santorini) are newly launched with only 59.3% & 56.4% caveats lodged - so the data is not solid there. 


Now let's take a look at the ex-HUDC Enbloc sales to see if they followed this Rule-of-Thumb. No cigar to anyone who guesses the right answer. 


And Graphically, they both look like this

Statutory Notices

LTSA, First Schedule 1(b) affix to a conspicuous part of each building comprised in the strata title plan or the development to which section 84D or 84E applies, as the case may be, a notice in the 4 official languages specifying —..   (ii).......within 4 weeks after the start of the permitted time and thereafter at intervals of not more than 4 weeks from the date of the last notice under this sub-paragraph;

FIRST SIGNATURE TO CSA1 AND START OF THE PERMITTED TIME: 24 JUNE 2017
LAST LEGAL DAY TO SIGN CSA 16 JUNE 2017  (5 DAYS COOLING OFF PERIOD)





As of 2 Mar 2017, 55.89% of the total share values and making up 55.93% of the total area of all lots have signed the CSA

That is 312 units out of 560

A TOTAL OF  22 UNITS HAVE SIGNED SINCE 3 Feb 2017

Enbloc Follow Up

It has been a while since a number of estates were burned (ahem, I mean sold) enbloc and spanking new condominiums have since risen from their ashes. It's time to take a look at how the developers fared in their bargain basement purchases.
(*Source of raw data REALIS. Not all units sold will lodge a caveat so the data is never complete. Profit and construction costs are only estimates.  All charts are my own, and as such prone to error and inaccuracy.  Read at your own risk. 

Let's start with poor ....Minton Rise    (ex-hudc) sold for a song in 2007.
96% of the units sold in the new condo have lodged their caveats and so the total sales proceeds as well as their square footage can be totted up.

The total sales proceeds were an astounding 1.13 billion .... The original owners got a paltry $611k each. No doubt they were treated to the same nonsense about 'premium above present market price' and failed to get a residual land valuation.



Next Up... ...Waterfront View    . This Enbloc is notable not only for their poor enbloc proceeds / unit  but also the landmark decision in the High Court which underlined the Law on financial loss with regard to CPF. CPF is monopoly money - whatever about losing your accrued interest - you also can lose the principle sum without it going towards financial loss.
This estate is hard for me to estimate - because 4 condominiums arose from where once the single ex-HUDC estate stood. How to estimate the construction costs? I've given it a very conservative $900k.
I include the summary of the raw data too, for reference.


Who's next...
How about the earliest HUDC Enbloc .... Amberville.... in Marine parade. Now, at the time, their enbloc windfall was considered pretty good and the owners were happy. Mind you, nobody knew anything back then. It took forever for the new condominium to be built.



Let's move on to ...Gillman Heights..... The developer ran into trouble selling their high class apartments and are heading for their 3rd Year of Extension on the Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty (ABSD) for unsold units. According to one website; The Interlace has 105 units still unsold. They need to drop their prices to avoid paying mucho moolah in fines. I put their construction cost at $600m - because of the unusual design - but it could be higher.


And finally ... Farrar Court .... The first ex-Hudc estate to do justice to the 607 owners and realised the full potential of their choice site. It is not their fault the developer has been struggling to sell off all the units - not surprising as the design is SO ugly and fails to attract. Again I put the construction cost at an arbitrary $600m.  D'Leedon is in it's 2nd Yr of ABSD Extension and heading for a 3rd.



THE ALPS (TAMPINES AVE 10 PARCEL D)


A new condo coming up soon on the awful Tampines Ave 10 location. Try as they might , they can't think of many points of praise to sing about (see here). One selling point is apparently 10 bicycle slots (I kid you not - look under 'facilities')!  

Just imagine 9 fifteen storey blocks crammed into an area approx ONE QUARTER the size of Tampines Court. Out of the 626 units, only 3 are the size of a TC unit - a full 70% are shoeboxes under 700 sqft. 

No price list yet - but worth a gander when the show room opens :)