April 27, 2011

LAGUNA PARK











Looking through past articles (just click on the label LAGUNA PARK at the end of the post), reread the articles dated 5th & 8th Sep  2009 which said:

CapitaLand’s chief executive Liew Mun Leong said yesterday that the reserve price tag of some $1.2 billion for the estate is “too high to yield affordable homes”.
I’m not very sure that at the end of the day, after paying over $800 per plot ratio, plus construction costs, plus your cost of financing, your break-even cost would be something like $1,500 or $1,600 (per square foot). “Are buyers prepared to pay for it at that location and that price? I am less sanguine than them,” said Mr Liew.

The land price for the condominium, which has 67 years left on its lease, works out to about $844 per sq ft per plot ratio, including the $400million payable.
At this price, the successful purchaser could break even at about $1,200 to $1,250 psf, with a view of pricing the new units at $1,400 to $1,600 psf, said Mr Tan.
Chesterton Suntec International’s research and consultancy director Colin Tan said the condominium sits on an attractive site that faces the sea, but ‘it remains to be seen if it can achieve that kind of pricing’.


Well, Mr Liew & Mr. Tan..... take a good look at Silversea; a unit there  sold in Jan for $2465 psf.   People will pay through the nose for that seaview.  Laguna Park owners have every right to feel sanguine.

And if it doesn't sell - nothing is lost, sit back and enjoy the view. 

April 26, 2011

SC Meeting: 16 Apr 2011

SC Minutes 2

Are these really the minutes of a 5 hour long meeting?.... it looks more like an attendance roll.  The vast majority of owners who did not attend as observers would have no clue as to what went on. This minimalistic style of minuting is not acceptable; it is lazy and totally non-transparent in the long run.

The onus is not on owners to attend meetings in order to keep abreast of what's going on, but for the SC secretary to write comprehensive minutes of the proceedings for everyone to read.

Sat 16 April, 2011  A fly on the wall's viewpoint

Five marketing agents  made their pitch one by one followed by a Q&A session.

On reflection, perhaps it is best for the sale committee to publish it's minutes first as I wouldn't want to 'disturb' any negotiation by alerting competitors to each others weaknesses.

So generalities will have to suffice for now.
  • The proposed reserve prices ranged from ridiculously low to within possible 70+% reach.
  • Presentation was similar though a couple stood out in their polished performance giving a positive appraisal of the estate and a bullish assessment of the market. 
  • The firms ranged from big to boutique. 
  • Solo performers to 'Men in Blue' - replete with architect as wing man. 
  • One was cagey about showing his workings, as if it were inside information. It's no surprise his proposal turned out to be the lowest. 
  • Another had absolutely no problem in offering up his calculations for scrutiny.
  • One inexplicably used 2010 GLS sales in Jln Eunos and Hougang when we have GLS sales much closer to home in Tampines and Simei. 
  • One wanted to choose the law firm as he had had trouble with some firms in the past.
  • Some preferred mass signings whilst another wanted to go about the estate signing at any hour of the day and thought the lawyer should be at his beck and call.
  • One highlighted their big business connections, another his legal expertise. 
  • Even on first blush, you could tell the sharks from the minnows, which ones would most likely cause property agent problems akin to round 1. 
  • Only one tried the goondu method of individual unit price and 'premium', the others realised how owners in general have savvied up since 2008.
  • One was involved in two big High Court cases which involved setting precedents in two areas; supplemental CSAs and conditional signers, though of course, this was not mentioned. 
  • Only observers asked about 1-for-1 exchange and height restriction. 
  • All 5 marketing agents thought that TC could be rebuilt up to 36 storeys when in fact we have a height restriction of 49 m AMSL. The Tampines area will  only have it's first 36 storey building when they decide to move Changi Airport to Jurong.
I have to say kudos to some  of the sale committee members, but  perhaps trying to gauge 5 prospective marketing agents over five and a half hours was a case of too much information, delivered too fast and in not enough fine detail.  The SC has the printouts to pore over  and hopefully they will spot the holes and miscalculations.. eg:
  • I have a sneaking suspicion not one of the MAs added the Bonus GFA when computing the total saleable area - thereby awarding the developer an extra 10% GFA on top of their 'reasonable profit', - and 10% is 196,603 sqft. The total saleable area is therefore 2,064,336 sqft  and NOT 1,966,034 sqft.
  • And what was the Value on Completion @ ???? sqft. I hope it was $1200 -1400  and NOT $800.
  • Did I see efficiency at 85% on one proposal? Shouldn't that be 95%?
The residual land value method might be subjective, but millions can be given away with a snip her, a snip there. I hope the SC have done their own RLV spreadsheet to plug in the various values.
etc, etc, etc...

The slides flashed by so fast and it was hard for me to read the small print from the back of the room. Scrutinizing every detail was not possible in such a setting, with time as a constraint.
I hope all interested owners can get a closer look at the selected proposals before the EGM so we aren't all squinting at the screen trying to do lighting speed mental arithmetic before it vanishes from view.

My own personal view is that  the highest proposal might appeal to a good number at the beginning - especially to those who view their units as investment or plan on downgrading.  But it will lose it's shine quickly if the market continues on it's upward path, especially to those looking for a replacement home with some cash to spare.

The highest proposal does not reach my expectation.

13 April 2011
To the SC: Don't accept approximations, or a lumped figure for development cost or development proceeds - get the breakdown. These figures will have to undergo further scrutiny by interested owners.

        April 7, 2011

        10% profit mythbuster


        I have been following the Waterfront Collection closely here.

        They bought out the ex-HUDC for $241 psf ppr (including a DP/DC of $102m) and the media reported their break-even price would be around $450 psf.

        Based on caveats lodged*;  about 55% of the total GFA has been sold to date.

        They have 45% left to make it mega-profitable - and the HUDC owners who gave away their land have downgraded to HDB with their miserable 'premium'.

        Premium? More like a booby prize. They 'jumped off a cliff' as a good Minister once told me about majority owners in general who undersell their estates. They were suckered in by the fallacious argument of individual units getting a premium above the going market rate.

        That is why Tampines Courters in round 2 need to see not only the bare valuation report (which can be a fiddled, subjective document high on words and low on detail)  but the actual business proposal as well. We need to see the Residual Land Value of our estate - the figures shown to the developers.

        No marketing agency would offer their services for 2 years to sell the estate on a no-sale-no-fee basis if they had not already worked out how profitable it would be to developers. They are not babes in the wood and if they try to bluff  owners/sale committee by saying this RLV is done at a later stage then they are bold-faced liars.

        Lets see what the Marketing Agents lined up on the 16th have to say for themselves ...

        *lodging caveats is voluntary, and does not reflect the full sale volume. With a sold out project, some caveats will remain outstanding.   

        April 4, 2011

        Toothless Rules

        A new pitfall has presented itself through Tampines Court En bloc Round 2 concerning the Amendments made to the LTSA (2010):  They don't work.

        Rules and their empty penalties.

        A lot now falls into the hands of the managing agent of the estate. But nobody has prepared them for their new and important task. They are maintenance people; they simply take care of the estate and  hold regular AGMs. They do not know the intricacies of LTSA and the consequences of miss-steps along the way. They are unprepared and hopeless at the task.

        The 20% requisition: they are likely to mishandle even this minor task. They set a date for the EGM and scramble to have the necessary 20% by the due date. Cart before the horse.

        The First EGM for the constitution of the sale committee: they are unaware of what motions to include. They can completely eliminate the 'powers, duties or functions' as they do not see their importance.
        • At the EGM proper; they do not know how to apply the eligibility rules and have no clue about the importance of disclosure. They ignore the fact that it is a compulsory for candidates to disclose the nature and extent of ownership in the estate - whether by themselves wholly or jointly. And this extends to family members and other associates. It's written there in  black and white .   The penalty for non-disclosure by a candidate is to have his election made void. Do they apply the penalty? No.
        • The rules say that a written declaration must be made "before or at the meeting" but the MA can totally ignore that minor detail and postpone any written declaration  until AFTER the meeting when everyone has gone home. Any disclosure of bankruptcy or arrears to the MCST has therefore not been made known to the owners before they select a SC member.  In fact, they never get to know.
        • When asked to investigate undisclosed associate connections they refuse to do so, even when handed the names and unit numbers on a plate. 
          The disclosure rules are toothless.

          This is what the MinLaw has to say when asked what recourse is open to owners whose managing agent is not up to the task.

          We refer to the issues that you have raised with respect to the en bloc proceedings.

          2.      If subsidiary proprietors (SPs) have reason to suspect that a member of the collective sale committee (CSC) has not fully disclosed potential conflicts of interest, they should establish the facts and highlight their concerns to the other members of the CSC, the property consultant and/or the lawyer.  SPs can organise a general meeting to remove any such member of the CSC found to have a conflict of interest which had not earlier been disclosed.  SPs can also collectively agree to, or reject, the terms and conditions of the Collective Sale Agreement (CSA) put forward by the CSC by voting during a general meeting.  Further, if the CSC does not comply with the requirements under the Land Titles (Strata) Act and this prejudices the interest of any person, SPs could raise the non-compliance as an objection when the CSC applies to the Strata Titles Boards (STB) for a collective sale.

          3.      The STB will try to resolve such disputes through mediation.  If there is no resolution at the mediation stage, the Strata Titles Boards will issue a “stop order” to discontinue the proceedings.  Majority owners can then choose to apply to the High Court for adjudication inter alia including on the issue of non-compliance.  Objectors may also choose to file the same objections in the High Court.

          Source: extract from email from MinLaw to 'itshometome' dated Mar 28, 2011

          Step 1 >>> I wrote to the managing agent. He refused to look into the 'associate' angle even after I had done the legwork and investigating for him and established the facts. One SC member did not disclose her co-mortgagee's interest in a second unit in the estate. She did not disclose her sister's ownership in 2 units in the estate. All 5 units were recently bought within 6 months of each other.

          Step 2 >>> I wrote to the sale committee who replied that it was none of their business. I have to agree with them, it should be the managing agent's.
          .
          Step 3 >>> I will ask the en bloc lawyer.  But he does not come onto the scene for at least 3 to 6 months after the first EGM and  I have no confidence he will not act on this matter. It is not in his mandate to rectify past mistakes or apply  EGM rules retrospectively.  He's the supposedly smart one  and knows clause 10 of the 3rd Schedule will effectively take care of any  'defect or disqualification' of any sale committee improperly constituted.
          Ask the Property consultant??  and you expect him to step up to the plate after the managing agent, sales committee and en bloc lawyer have all refused to become involved?

          Update Sep 2011: I believe the en bloc lawyer did step in and do something about this errant SP member. I have no idea what was said or done, but not long after I sent my letter detailing my concerns to him, the SC member mysteriously resigned. Finally, some justice, 9 months late.

          Step 4 >>> Hold another EGM.  Now we know for sure MinLaw is sending us on a wild goose chase! Going around in circles like a dog  chasing his tail. A fresh EGM ( and a fresh 20% requisition) to ask owners to apply the LTSA penalties for  an EGM held months earlier, and these penalties are  dependent on being passed by  simple majority in a resolution. With no one to enforce the rules at the beginning - there simply are no rules.

          Step 5 >>> Ah, the powerless STB...... TWO YEARS AFTER THE FIRST EGM.
          The owner now has the added burden of proving that the non-compliance has prejudiced his interests and the case gets booted to the High Court.
          If not, then the non-compliance just becomes a technicality covered by clause 10 and can be safely ignored. 

          The Ministry of Law must be laughing up it's sleeve at us. 
          Amending the LTSA to accommodate the stern rulings given by the Horizon Towers Appellate Court on the one hand, whilst neutering their effectiveness and relevance on the other. They really, really didn't want that landmark decision to upset the en bloc applecart too much, yet they couldn't just ignore it either.
          Some window dressing was necessary.
          So, the new rules were crafted in such a way to be largely all bark and no bite.

            April 1, 2011

            Tulip Garden

            Tulip Garden collective sale fizzles -  PropertyGuru - 4 April 2011


            1 April 2011


            Quelle surprise! Of course there were no bids - there rarely are with the possibility of a Private Treaty afterward.

            IF developers are interested in this site at this present time, they will only show their hand after the tender has closed, when owners are feeling a little despondent, when the marketing agents  have poured doom and gloom on their hopes and depressed their spirit. 

            In a tender, the power is with the owners.
            In a private treaty, it's the developers who call the shots  - and deadlines. 

            But I have said all this before .......Public tender or private treaty?
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