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"I am a BLOGGER NOT an expert. This is a BLOG not a 'go-to' website for official information. I represent no one's view save my own. I have neither legal nor financial training, nor do I have anything to do with the real estate industry. My understanding of the Collective Sale Process is from a layman's position only. My calculations, computations and tables are homespun and may contain errors. Please note that nothing in this blog constitutes any legal or financial advice to anyone reading it. You should refer to your lawyer, CSC or financial adviser for expert advice before making any decision. This disclaimer is applicable to every post and comment on the blog. Read at your own risk."
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There is one thing worse than an Enbloc ----- and that is an Enbloc done badly. Since the majority have the necessary mandate to sell, then they owe it to all SPs to make a success of it. Minority SPs can only watch and wait, if they sell then lets pray it's at a price we can move on with, if they don't sell, then we are happy to stay for a few more years.

The 'en bloc' factor

Most recent update: 11 Nov 2012

# This post has nothing to do with setting the RP or justifying the RP - it is simply about shedding some light on one of the oft made comments people generally make about TC resale prices - that 'they have risen primarily because of the on going en bloc attempt '

Is it true that the rise in resale prices at Tampines Court is primarily due to the current collective sale attempt? It is hard to quantify what effect an en bloc attempt might have, but at least we can start by doing a comparative analysis with other established 99yr leasehold estates in Simei, Tampines and Pasir Ris and see how TC might differ from the general trend.

So here it is:-

I have used average monthly resale $psf between Jan 2008 and Oct 2012 . Where no data was available (no sales) I have used averages (to avoid gaps in the graph).

There is an obvious pattern here; all estates have experienced a steady rise in price psf and you cannot tell by simply looking at the chart which estate is going through an en bloc. No estate deviates from the norm to such an extent as to warrant a question mark. As they say, a rising tide lifts all boats.

TC does not seem to be advantaged nor disadvantaged by the ongoing collective sales attempt.

It is no surprise that the 3 oldest estates (TC, Loyang Valley and Elias Green) have the lowest psf, not forgetting of course TC is the only estate without any of the usual condo facilities. Our draw is location, unit size, low maintenance fee and space. Even still, we are closing the gap -which may or maybe not be due to the mysterious 'EP'.

The 'en bloc potential' cannot be discounted as a contributing factor but then again, it may be a contributing factor to some degree in the other estates, too, for all we know.
There have been 12 unit sales so far this year. 
  
In round 1-  there were no unit sales between Oct 2006 and Aug 2008 and so as the market rose, TC was left behind.



4 comments:

  1. Good job in the analysis.
    If TC prices were going up just because there was an en-bloc coming, then, we should expect a fall if the en-bloc fail. But looking at the price of TC just after the failed en-bloc 1, it went up.
    The prices of homes and not just TC is market driven and the lack of land in Singapore.
    If the world economy crashes, whether TC is having en-bloc or not, or for that matter; property market will take a big hit.
    Bottom line, hold your horses, don't need to go for en-bloc to sell your home. Sell when you like at the price you like. HDB sold for $900,000 to a right buyer!

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  2. After the collapse of the 1st TC enbloc, resale prices did drop to $6XXK and $5XXK with 2 units sold at $485K. This is a fact.

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  3. Sorry those were the facts of 2 units and has to be taken into context of the many more who sold at much higher prices.
    Property agents were selling units greater than $700K ~ $750K.
    Do you know why these had to sell lower? - Some (like my neighbor) had bought another home, cannot afford two loans.
    Another neighbor not in a hurry had sold it for more than $950K.
    And that's a fact. Those who are in a hurry - for whatever their reason, do not command the bargaining power.
    Those who can hold out wins.
    In the case of TC en-bloc, Developers will win because they have holding power, and TC sellers are in a hurry.

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  4. Ah.. frankly the price is RIGHT , NOW!
    I sold mine for over a million and took back more than $600k in profits. During this slow economic times, having cash is so much better. Remember 1 bird inthe habd is better than 2 birds in the bushes..

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